Polaris Trading Group (PTG) provides institutional quality futures day trading education that includes an Online Study Course, Live Trading Room, and ongoing Training and Mentoring. David Dube, a thirty-year investment banks and hedge funds veteran trader, moderates the PTG Trading Room, where he provides traders-specific information and institutional analysis on current market conditions. The report included below breaks down today’s (10.29.15) trade strategy from Polaris Trading Group.
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release its preliminary estimate of U.S. economic growth for the third quarter at 8:30 a.m. ET, at the same time as the weekly jobless claims report. Economists are looking for the economy to have grown at an annual rate of 1.6% during the period, well below the 3.9% rate recorded in the second quarter. The GDP data will follow yesterday’s Fed meeting, which described the economy as expanding at a “moderate” pace and turned up the heat around a possible December rate hike.
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 GDP Q3
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Results of $29B, 7-Year Note Auction
3:00 Farm Prices
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
S&P e-mini (ES) vaulted higher to reach 3 Day Cycle Target (2083.50) previewed in prior DTS Report 10.28.15 We stated: “Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…SPILL UP…There is plenty of room to continue the rally to reach upper price targets. Levels to be mindful of are: 2071.75…2078.00…2083.50…Possible HOD = 2083.50.
All stated targets were fulfilled in style following hawkish statement for FED, paving the way for increased potential of December interest rate hike. Financials lead the market higher with a 2.34% gain, followed by rally in Crude Oil of +2.22%. Most other sectors were up across the board, expect for Utilities.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Having reached Cycle Targets, price may be in need of some consolidation to absorb recent gains. Today is normally down and fits right in with normal cycle action.
Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Average Decline = 21.75; Possible HOD = 2094.00 CD1 Penetration Level; Possible LOD = 2063.25 Average Decline.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels. We will identify specific trade levels in Trading Room.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2085.25), THEN expansion targets 2089 – 2092.50 STATX Zone. CD1 Penetration Level 2094.25.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2085.25) increases odds of corrective decline initially targeting 2074.00 Central Pivot. Additional levels of possible buy response are as follows: 2070.50; 2067.25 – 2063.75 3D CPZ. Average Cycle Decline Target 2063.25.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” – Bruce Lee
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*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”